NBA Playoffs 2025
Round 1 Preview and Predictions
The first round of the NBA Playoffs starts today at 1pm with the Bucks playing the Pacers (GO PACERS), so it is time for some NBA matchup previews and predictions! Below, I break down every matchup in Round 1 with reasons why each team could win, as well as my prediction for who will win and how many games it will take them to do so. I’m hoping that I do better than I did with my pre-season predictions on the Unlucky Topics podcast….
West
Thunder (1) vs Grizzlies (8)
Why the Thunder will win: This roster is filled with lots of young talent, which allowed OKC to achieve a 68-14 record in the regular season. They have a top five offense (4th) and defense (3rd), which is no match for most of the opponents they may face in the playoffs. Expect them to make a deep playoff run.
Why the Thunder won’t win: There is not much evidence to show that they won’t win this series. The Thunder’s only weakness is that they don’t have a lot of playoff experience. They may face some challenges later in the playoffs, but they shouldn’t have too much trouble with this first matchup.
Why the Grizzlies will win: The Grizzlies are actually a much better team than their record (48-34) and seed would indicate. If you just look at the stats, the Grizzlies are top 5 in points per game, points differential, rebounds, and blocks. This team is very aggressive on both offense and defense and should not be underestimated.
Why the Grizzlies won’t win: While the Grizzlies are good, they are clearly going to be outgunned versus the Thunder. For everything the Grizzlies are good at, the Thunder are great at, and it is simply going to be difficult for them to contest in this series.
Prediction: Thunder in 4
Nuggets (4) vs Clippers (5)
Why the Nuggets will win: Nikola Jokić. Over the past several games, Jokić has averaged a triple-double (at least 10 points, 10 rebounds, and 10 assists). Plus, Jokić has loads of playoff experience. I wouldn’t be surprised if he leads his team through this close series.
Why the Nuggets won’t win: The Nuggets have had a rough finish to the season, going just 5-5 in their last 10 games and almost falling into the play-in tournament. They also fired their head coach with just a few games left, which adds an interesting spin to their games going forward.
Why the Clippers will win: Contrary to the Nuggets, the Clippers had a fantastic finish to their season by winning the final 8 games of their season. This team is surging at just the right time and could bring that momentum into the playoffs.
Why the Clippers won’t win: If James Harden and Kawhi Leonard don’t play to their full potential, then the Clippers don’t stand a chance. They need Leonard to stay healthy and Harden to break his streak of struggling in the playoffs. Otherwise, the Clippers are going to have a tough time beating the Nuggets.
Prediction: Nuggets in 6
Lakers (3) vs Timberwolves (6)
Why the Lakers will win: LeBron James and Luka Dončić. While there were some initial concerns whether these two would play well together, James and Doncic have thrived while playing together. Together, they average 54.8 points, 15.4 rebounds, and 16.6 assists per game since the trade. Guarding these two (and Austin Reaves) will be a challenge for any team that faces them.
Why the Lakers won’t win: Since the Lakers traded Anthony Davis away, they have struggled more with their defense in the paint. Lucky for them, this hasn’t cost them much thus far, but it could certainly be a problem with this matchup against Minnesota.
Why the Timberwolves will win: Anthony Edwards is such a talented player in the NBA. He scores the fourth most points of any player in the league (27.6 points) and usually plays even better in these high-stakes games. Expect a monster performance from this guy, win or lose.
Why the Timberwolves won’t win: The Lakers have home court advantage in this series, and have gone 31-10 when at home this season. While this may not seem like much, it might be just enough to swing the series out of the Timberwolves favor.
Prediction: Lakers in 6
Rockets (2) vs Warriors (7)
Why the Rockets will win: Rebounding. The Rockets rebound better than any other team in the league (by a decent size margin too). Their presence on the interior could cause issues for Golden State.
Why the Rockets won’t win: After missing the playoffs last year, the Rockets executed a quick rebuild and catapulted themselves to second seed this year. Nonetheless, the Rockets don’t have the kind of playoff experience that most of the Warriors’ players do.
Why the Warriors will win: Playoff Jimmy Butler. Since the Warriors traded for Jimmy Butler, the Golden State Warriors have achieved a 24-7 record. Plus, we already know from when Butler was on the Heat that he performs even better in the playoffs. Combine him with the rest of the Warriors’ roster and this is a dangerous matchup.
Why the Warriors won’t win: The Rockets defense. The Rockets' defense has been fantastic this year and could pose problems for some star Warriors players. Simply put, if star players like Steph Curry, Jimmy Butler, and Draymond Green are heavily guarded, they can’t score and win games.
Prediction: Warriors in 7
East
Cavaliers (1) vs Heat (8)
Why the Cavaliers will win: The Cavs are undoubtedly one of the best teams in the league, and this is largely due to their dominating offense. They lead the league in average points per game with 121.9 per game and are second in field goal percentage with 49.1% of their field goals going in. It will be extremely tough for any team to stop this dominate offense.
Why the Cavaliers won’t win: The simple answer is that they will win. They may give up a game or two to the Heat (they already did so once this season), but it is very unlikely that they lose the entire series.
Why the Heat will win: The Heat have a top 10 defense, which will be useful in slowing the high-flying Cavs offense. They also have a history of upsetting high-seeded teams in the playoffs when people least expect it (this was with Jimmy Butler, though).
Why the Heat won’t win: They can’t close games. While we did see them close a game last night with their win over the Hawks, this is the exception rather than the normal. If they want to have any chance beating the Cavs, they are going to have to close the game when they get the chance.
Prediction: Cavaliers in 4
Pacers (4) vs Bucks (5)
Why the Pacers will win: Assists. The Pacers move the ball better than almost any team in the league (Tyrese Haliburton alone averages almost 10 per game). In addition, the Pacers shoot at 48.8%, which is the third best shooting percentage of any team in the league.
Why the Pacers won’t win: While there were able to beat the Bucks in the playoffs last year (and eventually go onto the Eastern Conference Finals), they have not had nearly as much success against Milwaukee this season (just 1-3).
Why the Bucks will win: Giannis Antetokounmpo. There is no doubt that Giannis is one of the best players in the league, and it doesn’t seem like Indiana has found a way to guard him. He has shot 67.8% against Indiana this season.
Why the Bucks won’t win: Damian Lillard is currently out with an injury and will have to sit out at least the first game of this series (could be more). While the Bucks have many other talented players, losing Lillard is a big blow to their team.
Prediction: Pacers in 6
Knicks (3) vs Pistons (6)
Why the Knicks will win: Their offense power. The Knicks are one of the best teams in the league when it comes to offense (48.6% field goal percentage). Four out of their five starting players rank in the top 50 in scoring, which is quite impressive when you consider there are 30 teams in the league.
Why the Knicks won’t win: They can’t guard Cade Cunningham. In the four times the Knicks met the Pistons this season, they only went 1-3 and this was largely due to their failure to guard Cade Cunningham. In these games, Cunningham posted an average of 30.8 points, 8.3 assists, and shot 56% overall. If the Knicks want to win this series, they need to lock him down.
Why the Pistons will win: The Pistons are a very young team and play at one of the fastest paces of any team in the league. If they can stretch this series, they may be able to wear the Knicks out and increase their odds of advancing.
Why the Pistons won’t win: Inexperience. Since this is such a young team, many of the players don’t have playoff experience and could buckle under the pressure of a more experienced Knicks squad.
Prediction: Pistons in 7
Celtics (2) vs Magic (7)
Why the Celtics will win: The Celtics score the eight most points per game and allow the second least points per game. They also shoot the lights out from three-point range (in fact, they have broken records for how many three-point shots they have attempted this season).
Why the Celtics won’t win: While the Celtics may lose a game or two, it isn’t likely that they lose this series. They will certainly experience the intensity of Orlando’s defense, but I don’t think this is enough to stop them from winning the series and making a deep playoff run.
Why the Magic will win: Even thought the Celtics offense is powerful, the Magic boast the best defense (according to point allowed per game) in the league by only allowing their opponents to score 105.5 points per game. They also average 6.0 blocks per game, which is the most by any team this season.
Why the Magic won’t win: While the Magic have one of the best defenses in the league, the same can’t be said for their offense. They score the third-fewest points per game of any team in the league. When you are going against one of the best defenses in the league, that is not a promising sign. Expect the Magic to have at least one game with fewer than 100 points scored.
Prediction: Celtics in 5
Round 2
East
Cavaliers (1) vs Pacers (4): Pacers in 7
Celtics (2) vs Pistons (6): Celtics in 5
West
Thunder (1) vs Nuggets (4): Thunder in 6
Lakers (3) vs Warriors (7): Lakers in 6
Conference Finals
Celtics (2) vs Pacers (4): Celtics in 5
Thunder (1) vs Lakers (3): Thunder in 7
Finals
Thunder (1) vs Celtics (2): Thunder in 6
Get ready for some great NBA basketball over the coming weeks! Who do you have to win it all? Leave a comment and let me know!